: What Comes After the Coming Climate Anarchy? #WorldNEWS In 2021, global carbon dioxide emissions reached 36. 3 billion tons, the highest volume ever recorded. This year, the number of international

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What Comes After the Coming Climate Anarchy? #WorldNEWS
In 2021, global carbon dioxide emissions reached 36. 3 billion tons, the highest volume ever recorded. This year, the number of international refugees will cross 30 million, also the highest figure ever. As sea levels and temperatures rise and geopolitical tensions flare, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that humanity is veering towards systemic breakdown. The superpowers will be no salvation: Locked in a new Cold War,’ the U. S. careens between populism and incompetence, while China remains locked down at home and alienates many nations abroad.
We’re not very good at predicting the next five days, let alone five years. Our daily headlines underscore how we are overwhelmed by crises: COVID-19, natural disasters, ruptured supply chains, food shortages, international conflicts, spiking oil prices, failing states, refugee flows, and so forth. But these are not isolated incidents. They are manifestations of complexity—a global system in which the environment, economy, demographics, politics, and technology constantly collide in unpredictable ways. It was not a single event that caused the Roman and Mayan civilizations to collapse, but rather this complex collision of chain reactions.
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Today it’s fashionable to speak of civilizational collapse. The U. N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) states that just a 1. 5 degree Celsius rise will prove devastating to the world’s food systems by 2025. Meanwhile, the most recent IPCC report warns that we must reverse emissions by 2025 or face an irreversible accelerating breakdown in critical ecosystems, and that even if the Paris agreement goals are implemented, a 2. 4 degree Celsius rise is all but inevitable. In other words, the “worst case” RCP 8. 5 scenario used in many climate models is actually a baseline. The large but banal numbers you read— trillion in annual economic damage, 10-15% lower global GDP, etc. —are themselves likely massively understated. The climate bill just passed by the Senate is barely a consolation prize in this drama: a welcome measure, but also too little to bring rains back to drought-stricken regions in America or worldwide.

What if there isn’t a calm that lies beyond the current storm? In 1994, war correspondent Robert Kaplan famously wrote of a “coming anarchy” based on his reportage from West Africa to the Balkans, pointing to a swath of societies that had long since become failed states. Supply chain disruptions and inflation have accelerated the spread of state failures like cancerous mutations across the globe. COVID, climate change, and conflict – all point in the direction of a far more global trajectory for Kaplan’s thesis than even he pessimistically warned at the time.

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