: Warming may lead to more frequent, longer-lasting droughts in India: Study #IndiaNEWS #India New Delhi: Rising global temperatures may lead to more frequent and longer-lasting droughts in India, while

Warming may lead to more frequent, longer-lasting droughts in India: Study #IndiaNEWS #India
New Delhi: Rising global temperatures may lead to more frequent and longer-lasting droughts in India, while posing significant risks to people and ecosystems around the world, according to a study.
Researchers from the University of East Anglia (UEA) in the UK found that even a modest temperature increase of 1. 5 degrees Celsius will spell serious consequences in India, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Brazil and Egypt.
The study, published recently in the journal Climatic Change, quantified the projected impacts of alternative levels of global warming upon the probability and length of severe drought in the six countries.
Current pledges for climate change mitigation, which are projected to still result in global warming levels of 3 degrees Celsius or more, would impact all the countries in this study, said Jeff Price, Associate Professor of Biodiversity and Climate Change at UEA,.
For example, with 3 degrees Celsius warming, more than 50 per cent of the agricultural area in each country is projected to be exposed to severe droughts lasting longer than one year in a 30-year period, Price said in a statement.
Using standard population projections, the researchers estimated that 80 per cent to 100 per cent of the population in Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana, are projected to be exposed to a severe drought lasting one year or longer in a 30-year period.
For India, nearly 50 per cent of the population is projected to be exposed to a severe drought lasting one year or longer in a 30-year period, they said.
In contrast, the study found that meeting the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, that is limiting warming to 1. 5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, is projected to greatly benefit all of the countries in this study.
Meeting the target will greatly reduce exposure to severe drought for large percentages of the population and in all major land cover classes, with Egypt potentially benefiting the most, the researchers said.
In the 1. 5 degrees Celsius warming scenario, the drought probability is projected to triple in Brazil and China, nearly double in Ethiopia and Ghana, increase slightly in India, and substantially increase in Egypt, they said.
The study found that in a 2 degrees Celsius warming scenario, the probability of drought is projected to quadruple in Brazil and China, double in Ethiopia and Ghana, reach greater than 90 per cent probability in Egypt, and nearly double in India.
In a 3 degrees Celsius warming scenario, the probability of drought projected to be in Brazil and China is 30-40 per cent; 20-23 per cent in Ethiopia and Ghana; 14 per cent in India but nearly 100 per cent in Egypt, according to the researchers.

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