: Theres a Global War for Young Talent. The Winners Will Shape the Future #WorldNEWS The United Nations recently announced that on November 15th, the world population will reach 8 billion people. At
Theres a Global War for Young Talent. The Winners Will Shape the Future #WorldNEWS
The United Nations recently announced that on November 15th, the world population will reach 8 billion people. At some point in the 2030s, it ought to cross 9 billion. But will it ever reach 10 billion? I have my doubts.
Demographers have progressively been bringing down their population forecasts from some 15 billion in the 1980s and 1990s to the current prevailing estimate of 11 billion by 2100. Previous predictions missed urbanization and female empowerment as trends that radically pulled down the fertility curve. Now, they underestimate economic insecurity and climate stress. Baby busts from the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic have also contributed to a staggering decline in fertility, the combined impact of which will be apparent in precisely 2026. Why? In America, suddenly ten percent fewer high school students will enter college because of the mini 2008 baby bust. Globally, in 2026 we will tally the number of Generation Alpha children and find that it will be smaller than today’s stock of Gen-Z. Young Gen-Xers and older millennials already embraced the trend of having only one child before COVID struck. Now, young millennials and older Gen-Z don’t seem inclined to have any at all. Our kids aren’t having kids. The hockey-stick curve is flipping over becoming a flat line with a cliff.
For most of our lives, the world population has been growing at breakneck speed. Indeed, it has quadrupled in one century, from two billion in 1920 to nearly 8 billion today. Though the pace has slowed today as the latest generation chooses fewer or zero children, the world of the 2020s is still more young than old: The combined size of Gen-Y millennials (born 1981-96), Gen-Z (born 1997-2012), and Gen-Alpha (2013-2025) still tallies more than 4. 5 billion people—more than half the world’s population.
Not only are today’s youth the most populous demographic, but they are also the most mobile. Amidst climate change worries, economic anxiety, and political polarization, the last thing on young people’s minds seems to be settling down the way their parents did. On the contrary, with homeownership rates, fertility levels, and trust in government at record lows, today’s youth don’t seem pinned down by much of anything. Work has become remote, borders have reopened, and about one hundred countries now offer “nomad visas” or residency-by-investment programs seeking to attract talent and wealth from around the world. The number of takers is already in the tens of thousands and could easily reach six figures. Even Americans, who are far less likely to live abroad than their European counterparts, have become expats in record numbers, flocking to hip hubs such as Lisbon, Athens, and Berlin.
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